tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.comments2023-09-24T13:40:29.462+01:00Squander TwoUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger911125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-20522912843131945822023-09-24T09:50:38.959+01:002023-09-24T09:50:38.959+01:00His problem is that he's just too honourable, ...His problem is that he's just too honourable, you see. Matthew Wilsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-39314187848108739572022-02-03T16:01:55.668+00:002022-02-03T16:01:55.668+00:00So there's morons on both sides. Quite possibl...So there's morons on both sides. Quite possibly true.<br /><br />I think the difference is that the morons on the Govt/Fearmongering side are (or were) using "Died _with_ Covid therefore _of_ covid" to push a deeply deeply horrible restrction of really fundamental aspects of daily life. Like being able to sit next to your grandmother in her dying moments. And those same morons were then treating their own rules - and us - with contempt.<br /><br />As regards the stats, I grabbed the ONS data weekly (because like you my job is also heavily data driven) and you could see the excess mortality to a horrific degree. Just _after_ the first lockdown hit. _HEAVILY_ concentrated in the over 80s.<br /><br />As early as late April 2020, it was possible to see in the data that there was no excess mortaliy whatsoever in people under the age of 50-ish.<br /><br />That's where the with not of becomes important. 20 year old gets smashed up on his motorbike, tests positive on (or probably some time after) arrival in hospital and, bosh!, he's part of the Covid stats.<br /><br />It was always transparent nonsense and I would much rather we focussed on clobbering teh bastards in power than worrying about loons on the other end of the scale.The Pedant-Generalnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-35282608746293411992022-01-31T16:50:55.355+00:002022-01-31T16:50:55.355+00:00An interesting post, and an equally interesting co...An interesting post, and an equally interesting comment.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-40140968236562159652022-01-31T12:46:43.851+00:002022-01-31T12:46:43.851+00:00Not contradicting your argument whatsoever, it see...Not contradicting your argument whatsoever, it seems to me that people are trying to establish the risk to healthy people with no comorbidites of dying from covid. It is to support or oppose the blanket roll-out of experimental vaccine to people who might be most unlikely to die if infected. When the two populations are identified and the risks to each known, one can come up with a useful program of prevention and treatment that is perhaps less dangerous than that being deployed today.Mark In Mayennehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14987723233401368368noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-92111051071462642662020-11-13T12:46:23.965+00:002020-11-13T12:46:23.965+00:00"I'm a mathematician."
Sorry, but ..."I'm a mathematician."<br /><br /><br />Sorry, but I find this to be a disappointing article. "The idea that those numbers are not suspicious is just preposterous. I shan't bother explicating why..." Isn't that exactly the point..? The whole piece boils down to two scary graphs, appeals to authority ("I'm a mathematician" and "I work in financial regulatory reporting"), and hand-waving.<br /><br />I've earned a CFA and worked for decades in finance. Zero idea what it is you'd be fired for without more explication. Here's the thing: the reported votes in the charts were provided at discontinuous intervals, in lumpy increments. Entirely unlike financial markets, which tend to be highly liquid and continuous. (Yet still exhibit occasional discontinuities, such as the "flash crash" etc). Election officials reported tallies in discontinuous irregular "dumps"--one might include 1,000 votes, the next 6,000. Anyone who understands basic data science and reporting understands that would make a time series chart suspect. Moreover, Trump encouraged his voters to vote in person and not by mail (or even twice!), while Democrats were known to be much more likely to vote by mail. In MI a law passed shortly before the election allowed officials in some counties to begin processing mail in ballots the day before the election--thought NOT to start counting them. In WI, officials could not do anything until the day of the election.<br /><br />So the fact Democrat leaning mail in ballots would lag the in person voting counts is hardly a surprise. In fact it's not at all a surprise--it was thoroughly predicted and discussed in the days and weeks before November 3rd. <br /><br />Finally, you cite Antrim County as evidence of issues with the voting counts. A simple 10 seconds of Google-fu gets you to the statement by the Michigan Secretary of State ("False claims from Ronna McDaniel have no merit", November 6) pointing out that the 6,000 discrepancy had nothing to do with the voting machines--it was a clerical error with respect to the reporting. This was two days prior to your article so the failure to run that little point to ground calls your motives and rigor into question, I'm sorry to say. <br /><br />Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence. So far the Trump Campaign is 0 for 12 in court cases, where evidence actually matters.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07056440180430399913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-34758949837399095812020-11-11T14:21:46.537+00:002020-11-11T14:21:46.537+00:00Fantastically written. I might want to add a snipp...Fantastically written. I might want to add a snippet to it…we are supposed to be a “republic” (a state in which supreme power is held by the people and their elected representatives, and which has an elected or nominated president rather than a monarch); rather than a “democracy” (a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives); definitions according to google. I prefer to call our system “REPUBLIC”…as in Republican, rather than a much over used term “DEMOCRACY” as in referring to the Democrats. Our World History teacher in high school was very determined that we pupils learned the difference.<br /> Another friend sent me an excellent sermon stating that is was not so much “who” we voted for…as to “what” we voted for. We are trying to keep our nation free & safe & so many liberals do not see the danger we see coming. <br /> Keep the Faith in GOD where it belongs and hopefully the outcome will be what we are hoping for.<br />Pax Christi<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-66180782067000862232020-11-11T09:35:50.759+00:002020-11-11T09:35:50.759+00:00Anon @3:51
"As I understand it, the "no...Anon @3:51<br /><br />"As I understand it, the "no evidence" claim is always followed by the words "of widespread fraud"."<br /><br />And that's the thing. In the first instance - and I'm talking just the morning after the night before - it was simply "no evidence". This message was almost universal and used - on the morning of Wed 4th - by the BBC here in the UK. There was already evidence appearing but was it was being flagged or vanished by Twitter etc on the one side and systematically ignored by the MSM. IT'S THEIR F*CKING JOB TO GO AND INVESTIGATE. Get reporters on the ground. Interview the people making the claims - pound the streets. Instead, what we saw was _widespread_ (watch how that word is used) total lack of interest in doing any actual news-gathering. They just didn't want to hear.<br /><br />So, roll forward to today and you do indeed have ample evidence of just a ton of stuff that is really weird. The evidence is also pointing to the effects being most obvious in the places where it's really important - the swing states - such that this election could have been materially affected without any fraud being widespread.<br /><br />It's only NOW that the message has changed from plain "No evidence", which is laughable, to "no evidence _of widespread_ fraud" which is handy because it's true but irrelevant and serves to undermine the complaint being made.<br /><br />We are being gaslit again. The overton window is moving AGAIN. If you claim this whole stinks, you will be told you're a conspiracy theorist. It's already happening and it's terrifying.<br /><br />The Pedant-Generalnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-65144298468566002922020-11-10T15:51:33.987+00:002020-11-10T15:51:33.987+00:00As I understand it, the "no evidence" cl...As I understand it, the "no evidence" claim is always followed by the words "of widespread fraud". I think people are acknowledging that there were some wackos trying to pull some pranks or whatever, as there probably always are, but nothing to the level that would swing a state the size of PA or WI. That would need some serious meddling and there doesn't seem to be evidence of that. (I didn't believe the whole Russian collusion thing either. That level of fraud requires a ton of very slick work.) Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-24324807131581158882020-11-10T12:23:38.976+00:002020-11-10T12:23:38.976+00:00Re Aer Lingus - try your credit card company.
I s...Re Aer Lingus - try your credit card company.<br /><br />I spent 5 months trying to get a refund out of RyanAir after they cancelled our flights (and offered a cash refund), with absolutely no joy at all. 5 months!<br /><br />Raised it with the card company and we had the cash 3 days later....The Pedant-Generalnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-691113850126878502020-11-10T11:28:31.677+00:002020-11-10T11:28:31.677+00:00The media have been disgraceful. This all started ...The media have been disgraceful. This all started with their self-aggrandizing conviction that their job is to help people rather than to report facts. They've reached the bottom of that slippery slope now. Are there no "reporters" at all who thought it would be pretty cool to be the one who got the scoop on what might turn out to be one of the biggest events in American history? Apparently not.<br /><br />Have you seen the frantic editing of the Wikipedia entry for Benford's Law?<br /><br />Ah, things got in the way of that Aer Lingus fight and I got tired. Still, the time limit on claims for such crap is a few years, so I'll revisit it at some point. Squander Twohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06968628314723491478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-50605376647283747902020-11-10T09:31:41.053+00:002020-11-10T09:31:41.053+00:00Thanks S2. I'm still absolutely staggered that...Thanks S2. I'm still absolutely staggered that the whole narrative is "no evidence" - last I saw they've got 130 affidavits filed for the case in Philly. I've never seen such a stubborn refusal even to look. "No evidence" is being repeated so often that it genuinely smells of the "big lie repeated often enough", with all the overtones thereof. What I simply cannot fathom is the media's complicity with the big lie. At least with Goebbels, it was HIM doing the lying.<br /><br />And in other news, how did you get on with your customer service/flight diverted to Dublin disaster?<br /><br />I never saw the outcome of that fight.The Pedant-Generalnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-48352650009976291312020-11-10T01:57:20.119+00:002020-11-10T01:57:20.119+00:00Hi, PG.
As far as I can tell, the third graph has...Hi, PG.<br /><br />As far as I can tell, the third graph has been deleted from its original source. Although there is loads of stuff being oublietted by the social media giants just now, it looks like whoever put it together may have withdrawn it, so I'll delete it too.<br /><br />No doubt someone will be along to crow about this, but it's exactly the process I said we should follow: there's evidence; you look into it. Squander Twohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06968628314723491478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-57993905686985610702020-11-10T01:44:42.103+00:002020-11-10T01:44:42.103+00:00You're interfering with his confirmation bias ...You're interfering with his confirmation bias :)Dusan Dusanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07911796759272249969noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-89281738759909929372020-11-09T23:34:46.386+00:002020-11-09T23:34:46.386+00:00Also, the fact that the narrative was "no evi...Also, the fact that the narrative was "no evidence" since Wed evening, despite the fact that this stuff was floating about and there were already eye witness reports from postal workers, GOP count observers etc etc.<br /><br />Also the Benford law breaking results...<br /><br />The thing that really irks is the simple lack of curiosity. If it had gone the other way, CNN et al would have swarmed the area looking for corroborating reports. You would have had breathless interviews with the observers and, yes, the US would be on fire right now.<br /><br />It stinks to high heaven, but you're captured the real implications of this far better than I have been able to.The Pedant-Generalnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-12953242557983906152020-11-09T23:30:47.633+00:002020-11-09T23:30:47.633+00:00Can you provide explanation and source of the thir...Can you provide explanation and source of the third graph?<br />I've not seen that one before and I can't quite make out what it's saying from the axes.<br /><br />Are those some outlier points falling on a precise line? If so that's actual shite and people need jailing. The Pedant-Generalnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-15966581829818322752020-11-09T21:45:12.791+00:002020-11-09T21:45:12.791+00:00Oo, insinuating that I'm a Nazi. That's an...Oo, insinuating that I'm a Nazi. That's an amazingly clever tactic. You should suggest it to some of your fellow travellers, in case it hasn't occurred to them. <br /><br />Still deleted, though. Wanker.Squander Twohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06968628314723491478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-15710177108323589592020-11-09T21:38:11.871+00:002020-11-09T21:38:11.871+00:00You're right: 149.5M votes is an absurdly smal...You're right: 149.5M votes is an absurdly small data set.Squander Twohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06968628314723491478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-25654863663707982882020-11-09T21:33:44.577+00:002020-11-09T21:33:44.577+00:00Thank God you're here. Otherwise, I might not ...Thank God you're here. Otherwise, I might not know what my own job is.Squander Twohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06968628314723491478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-34086060065610758852020-11-09T20:19:36.503+00:002020-11-09T20:19:36.503+00:00Very well stated. Thanks. As someone else already ...Very well stated. Thanks. As someone else already said, however, those who need to read this won't.Jeff Corkranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10237015707116671667noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-33239240950533359562020-11-09T19:22:29.259+00:002020-11-09T19:22:29.259+00:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03721853082320357541noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-12749798001963417762020-11-09T19:03:38.198+00:002020-11-09T19:03:38.198+00:00No references to where the data has been obtained ...No references to where the data has been obtained from or the graphs taken from. The writer could have literally made up these graphs himself. Or they could have been taken from a known right wing media channel. No links or references have been included.<br /><br />None of the math is explained, just a vague statement of 'if your understand the numbers' which a normal laymen is not going to. <br /><br />The writer also claims he works in 'financial regulatory reporting' and yet also has a career in IT. Which is it cause they are vastly different. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-35618255857549422422020-11-09T18:59:04.434+00:002020-11-09T18:59:04.434+00:00Where are the comparisons of other years? Those gr...Where are the comparisons of other years? Those graphs could be very strange or completely normal but we have no reference points. Doesn't take a mathematician to see that the dataset is far too small for any conclusions or opinions. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-90948658127123501042020-11-09T18:37:48.515+00:002020-11-09T18:37:48.515+00:00Biden supporters lent towards mail in votes. Mail ...Biden supporters lent towards mail in votes. Mail in votes were counted in some states after the in person votes so Trump percentage seemed higher at first. Some states wanted to count these votes before election day to speed up the process. Trump was the one that litigated against this.<br /><br />Mail in votes are 100% legal and include things like overseas armed services votes. <br /><br />If you have any actual evidence of voter fraud then please share it with the authorities and it will be taken very seriously. Republican officials were present in the counting rooms and they have not provided any evidence. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09375054869453577215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-39074598533739471282020-11-09T17:30:23.753+00:002020-11-09T17:30:23.753+00:00If these obviously questionable voting / counting ...If these obviously questionable voting / counting patterns are not thoroughly investigated in a bipartisan manner (and, instead, are merely dismissed as "Nothing to see here. Move along."), the days of the great American experiment as a constitutional republic are over. In its place will be a huge banana republic with a massive nuclear arsenal, and criminals at the helm. God help us all...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867015.post-884412613483545102020-11-09T16:49:05.818+00:002020-11-09T16:49:05.818+00:00https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/ar...https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27L2RLAnnasielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06578468944752579345noreply@blogger.com